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Batteries increase by 5-15%
18

Jan

The price of batteries will increase by 5-15%, and the price increase of lithium batteries may continue until 2023

The lack of material in the lithium battery industry chain continues to increase prices. However, the end of the year does not mean that the price increase is coming to an end. On the contrary, many news indicate that the price of lithium batteries will continue to rise.


According to a report from Taiwan’s Electronic Times today, the battery module factory has been notified that due to the rising downstream demand for electric vehicles and energy storage, the price of cylindrical lithium battery cells will rise again at the beginning of next year by 5%-15%.


   Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) latest survey report shows that the current average price of lithium-ion battery packs is US$132/kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. However, due to increased pressure on material costs, the price of battery packs may rise to US$135/kWh next year, further slowing down the cost reduction process of electric vehicles.


   Another report from the Taiwan Electronic Times added that the surge in battery prices will continue until 2023.


  The time point for the cost competition of electric vehicles may be delayed by two years


   The price calculation of "US$132/kWh" mentioned above includes multiple downstream applications such as new energy vehicles, public transportation, and energy storage projects. For electric vehicles alone, the current average price of battery packs is only US$118/kWh, and the average price of batteries is US$97/kWh.


   The author of Bloomberg’s above report pointed out that although the overall price of batteries has fallen this year, in the second half of the year, the price has actually been rising.


   The current price of NMC (811) batteries is nearly US$110/kWh, and the price of Q4 is expected to be US$10 per kWh higher than that of Q1. As for the lithium iron phosphate battery, which has long been known for its high cost performance, it is also difficult to resist the cost pressure of the supply chain. Since September, domestic prices have risen by 10%-20%.


   The rise of batteries will not stop there, and other news from the supply chain recently confirmed Bloomberg’s forecast that “batteries will continue to rise next year”.


   The news pointed out that the first-tier battery factories that previously insisted not to raise prices next year are now also shaken, and they have begun to notify customers to renew online prices, and their quotations will increase by about 20%. Manufacturers also estimate that their quotations will rise across the board in 2022.


   From the survey report released by Changhong Energy at the end of last month, the company's lithium battery business has strong demand and full orders. Although it has raised prices for some products, it "cannot fully cover" the increase in raw material prices, and some price increase orders will only take effect in 2022.


   BNEF previously predicted that the average price of battery packs could fall below $100/kWh in 2024. Even without subsidies, the selling price and profit margin of electric vehicles will be the same as those of gasoline vehicles. In other words, they will be more cost-competitive.


However, under the expectation that the average price of batteries (packs) will continue to rise, the point in time to achieve the $100 boundary may need to be postponed for another two years to 2026, and the popularity of electric vehicles, the profits of car companies, and energy storage projects will all be Be affected.


   Although the realization of time is confusing, the route of 100 USD/kWh is still clear. This year, many manufacturers have released related battery technology roadmaps. For example, Renault and Ford have announced that they will strive to reduce the price to US$80/kWh in 2030.

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